经济管理学刊（中英文版）

退休影响中国城市男性医疗支出吗？— 基于模糊断点回归的实证研究

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作者：周思宇

摘要：

中国正面临日益严重的老龄化问题。随着城市化进程的加快和经济的持续增长，退休人员的健康状况令人担忧，对医疗服务的需求也在急剧增加。政府正努力应对医疗支出快速增长带来的挑战，尤其是在经济增长放缓的背景下。政府面临着一个重要的抉择：在法定退休年龄的执行力度上，是公民在达到法定退休年龄后额外工作一年所带来的边际价值更高，还是退休一年所产生的边际成本更低？评估退休政策的经济后果对整个社会和政府都至关重要。本文从医疗保险支出角度探讨退休对中国城市男性的影响，特别关注自我治疗、门诊和住院费用三类支出，并分析消费能力、健康状况、时间和生活方式四个影响机制。利用CHARLS数据（2014-2015），采用模糊断点回归方法以处理潜在内生性问题。研究发现，退休对医疗支出有双向影响：在55-65岁人群中，退休增加了自我治疗及药物费用，但降低了门诊和住院总费用；自付支出变化趋势相似，但幅度更大。

关键词：退休；医疗支出；模糊断点回归

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